Michael Atherton suspects Jacob Bethell will get the nod to start at No 3 over Ollie Pope in the first Ashes Test in Perth.
Atherton and fellow former England captain Nasser Hussain dissected the England squad named for the Ashes series in Australia, which starts at Optus Stadium on November 21, on the latest edition of the SportNews Cricket podcast.
Hussain said England's selection panel "had not blinked" in choosing a squad to suit the style in which head coach Brendon McCullum and captain Ben Stokes want to play, while Atherton said the change of vice-captain from Pope to Harry Brook was noteworthy given the potential implications for the former's place in the side.
"I thought that [the vice-captaincy change] was the most significant bit of news actually, given that the squad was kind of predictable with the exception of [Will] Jacks," said Atherton.
"I thought actually that was the bit of news that interested me the most.
"One, because it may not be the case that Stokes plays all five games. He's 34 years of age. Five Tests come quickly. The last three come very quickly.
"In recent times, although he looked in fantastic physical condition against India, bowled as well as he had for maybe six or seven years, he still got injured at the end of it and didn't quite see that through that five-Test match series.
"So he may not play all five, in which case it's going to be Brook, not Pope [as captain].
"But I felt there's a bit more to it than that."
Reflecting on the on Wednesday, Atherton added: "[Key] suggested there is no ulterior motive as far as the Pope decision is concerned in the sense that he's the man in possession at No 3 and the fact that he's no longer vice-captain doesn't mean automatically he's going to be demoted for Jacob Bethell.
"But I just have an instinct, a feeling in the waters, that they are going to play Bethell. That's just a guess really, just a kind of instinct you get. I think that decision is kind of, is rolled into that.
"There's a bit of cricket to play before we get to Perth, obviously for Bethell in the white ball stuff, not so much for Pope, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Jacob Bethell walk out at Perth at No 3.
"In which case, I'd go back to where we were in May and ask the question why he wasn't brought back and to get experience into his legs throughout the summer."
On the impact the decision may have on Pope, Hussain said: "The key line yesterday from Key was 'we think Harry Brook is a better leader'. That's quite a strong statement to make.
"Ollie Pope is a lad I think thrives on confidence.
"So that may have dented his confidence a bit.
"But if Stokes is injured now, Harry Brook captains. I wasn't that fussed about the whole vice-captaincy thing."
After not being considered for the Ashes squad on fitness grounds amid recovery from the dislocated shoulder he sustained during the fifth home summer Test against India, 36-year-old Chris Woakes' Test career appears to be at an end after 62 appearances featuring over 2,000 runs and almost 200 wickets.
"Rob Key did say that Chris Woakes is no longer in their plans, effectively," said Atherton.
"It's a sad way for that to end given the injury that we saw at the Oval and that unbelievably dramatic denouement to that series, but given his age, given the fact that he's not fit enough for the Ashes, the end of the Ashes will start almost a new cycle and therefore they'll obviously look to move on.
"But it sounds like we probably won't see Chris Woakes in Test cricket again, in which case he's had a pretty good career."
Hussain added: "You just hope that Rob had spoken to Chris Woakes. I'm sure he had done; to suddenly say he's not part of our plans, that virtually means we're looking in another direction.
"So he has been a great servant, a very, very fine cricketer for England, and it looks like England are moving on from him."
All times UK and Ireland
